How big is cloud computing?

For those desperate to understand the market size of Cloud, two articles in the recent news provide interesting insight. The first, from the Economist, demonstrates ClockKick’s attempts to estimate Amazon’s virtual computer provision, and estimates 90000 servers for Amazon – in the USA East-Coast only!

Quote: “Randy Bias, the boss of Cloudscaling, a IT-engineering firm, did not use these results when he put Amazon’s annual cloud-computing revenues at between $500m and $700m in 2010. And in August UBS, an investment bank, predicted that they will total $500m in 2010 and $750m in 2011.” (Economist 29th December 2010).

Information technology goes global: Tanks in the cloud | The Economist.

Another interesting thing to watch is Intel’s profits which have risen “thanks to server sales”. Making profits of $3.4bn in current economic times is tough – as the flat sales of PCs is testament. It is in the sales of servers that this profit has been made. A large proportion of these servers must be going into cloud,  either to replace ageing (and power-hungry expensive data-centers) with virtualised servers (as private clouds in some form) or to provide  public cloud offering (and SaaS services such as FaceBook and Google) within newly developed data centers.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12187653

Accenture Outlook: The coming of the cloud corporation

I have written, with two colleagues, an article for Accenture’s Outlook journal which introduces the idea of the Cloud Corporation:

Accenture Outlook: The coming of the cloud corporation.

The article discusses various trends in outsourcing which will impact upon Cloud (and vice versa).

Cloud computing remains focused on cost cutting achieved through new technology, however lessons from the past suggest that this is only a minor part of the disruptive innovation which Cloud may offer. In particular we should not ask “what is cloud computing?” but rather “why is cloud computing?” – in essence exploring the pressures on innovation today which resonate with the idea of utility computing.

While the cost saving is an important incremental innovation on existing practices, it is cloud’s potential to allow new forms of organisational collaboration which offer the potential of radical innovation. Moving the data-centre outside the organisation asks us to evaluate the relationship between the data-centre and the organisation. Is it “ours” to horde and control, or are parts of it able to be shared, opened, exploited by others (partners, customers, suppliers etc)? In turn does this opening of the relationship between the organisation and its information recast the organisation itself?

 

The Industry Speaks about Cloud, Part II: business execs fear its impact on work culture; IT execs doubt their ability to drive competitive advantage

The Industry Speaks about Cloud, Part II: business execs fear its impact on work culture; IT execs doubt their ability to drive competitive advantage.

Friends at Horses for Sources(www.horsesforsources.com )  have published their next analysis of the huge survey we worked on together. Read their comments on the focus of Cloud Computing on work culture.

As HfS discuss, the study suggests business executives fear major cultural change  and change in working practices, whereas for IT executives the fears are more about curtailment of their value as technology-enablers within businesses.

Read their blog entry for full details.

 

 

 

Cloud and Business – Our survey results are in…

You will be aware that we have been running a survey along with “Horses for Sources” of industry attitudes to Cloud Computing. We received 1053 responses – an impressive sample of the business community. While I have yet to fully analyse the results HfS have done some initial sifting as shown in the following graph from their site:

Graph of results

As Phil writes in his Blog this suggest that business function leaders are more impressed with Cloud and are involved in driving its adoption – marketing to IT functions is less likely to impress than targetting business executives. Unsurprisingly it seems clear that Cloud is seen as driving down costs (50+% suggest this appeals to a great extent”) but I was most struck by the number who strongly believe it will facilitate virtual/distributed organizations (also around 50%).

This is important because it suggests they believe Cloud computing offers the chance for organisational change – not just replication of existing functions or apps. Further it is supported by Business Executives who (nearly 50% of them) belived it will “enable us to focus on transforming out business”.

Cloud, in my view, offers the chance to do things differently not just cheaply. It offers the chance for new forms of organisation to challenge existing businesses. In particular it offers the chance for businesses to collaborate in new ways. SalesForce for example allow their users to open up specific parts of their SalesForce offering to business partners simply and easily allowing closer collaboration (something which would have required massive EDI investment a few years ago). Who knows what new forms of business this technical facility, and business executive desire will open up…  One might imagine “clouds” of nimble agile small enterprises collaborating using Cloud systems to take on the big corporates. Such businesses nimbleness and close integration of systems (through the cloud) might be a potent mix.

Microsoft in Cloud – Bloomberg’s analysis

Interesting analysis of microsoft’s place in the cloud today… And its change of focus to bring azure front and centre in it’s offering.

Microsoft Woos Toyota, Duels Amazon.com in Cloud Bet – Bloomberg.

SLA’s and the Cloud – the risks and benefits of multi-tenanted solutions.

Service Level Agreements (SLAs)  are difficult to define in the cloud in part because areas of the infrastructure (in particular the internet connection) are outside of the scope of either customer or supplier. This leads to the challenge of presenting a contractual agreement for something which is only partly in the suppliers control. Further as the infrastructure is shared (multi-tenanted) SLA’s are more difficult to provide since they rest on capacity which must be shared.

The client using the Cloud is faced a challenge. Small new cloud SaaS providers, which are  increasing their business and attracting more clients to their multi-tenanted data-centre, are unlikely to provide usefully defined SLA for their services than that which a data-centre provider can offer where it controls all elements of the supplied infrastructure.  Why would they – their business is growing and an SLA is a huge risk (since it is multi-tenanted breach of one SLA is probably a breach of lots – the payout might seem small and poor to the client but is large for a SaaS provider!). Further with each new customer the demands on the data-centre, and hence risk,  increase. Hence the argument that as SaaS providers become successful the risk of SLAs being breached might increase.

There is however a counter-point to this growth risk though – as each new customer begins to use the SaaS they will undertake their own due-diligence  checks. Many will attempt to stress test the SaaS service. Some will want to try to hack the application. As the customer base grows (and moves towards blue-chip clients) the seriousness of this testing will increase – security demands in particular will be tested as bigger and bigger companies consider their services. This presents a considerable opportunity for the individual user. For with each new customer comes the benefit of increasing stress testing of the SaaS platform – and increasing development of skills within the SaaS provider. While the SLA may continue to be poor, the risk of failure of the data-centre may well diminish as the SaaS grows.

To invoke a contract is, in effect, a failure in a relationship – a breakdown in trust. Seldom does the invocation of a contract benefit either party. The aim of an SLA is thus not just to provide a contractual agreement but rather to set out the level of service on which the partnership between customer and supplier is based. In this way an SLA is about the expected quality demanded of the supplier and with the above model the expected quality may well increase with more customers – not decrease as is usually envisaged for cloud. SLA’s for cloud providers may well be trivial and poor, but the systemic risk of using Clouds is not as simplistic as is often argued.  While it is unsurprising that cloud suppliers offer poor SLA’s (it is not in their interest to do otherwise), it does not mean that the quality of service is, or will remain, poor.

So what should the client consider in looking at the SLA offering in terms of service quality?

1) How does the Cloud SaaS supplier manage its growth? The growth of a SaaS service means greater demand on the providers data-centre. Hence greater risk that the SLA’s will be breached for their multi-tenanted data-centre.

2) How open is the Cloud SaaS provider in allowing testing of its services by new customers?

3) How well does the Cloud SaaS provider’s strategic ambition for service quality align with your desires for service quality.

Obviously these questions are in addition to all the usual SLA questions.

Steve Ballmer @ the LSE – Cloud talk!

I attended Steve Ballmer’s talk about Cloud Computing this morning at the LSE. While rather a vacuous affair – high on drama low on content – it was interesting (though perhaps unsurprising) to see him  focus on devices rather than software.

First he talked about the creation of “Clouds in a box” – that data-centres should be black-boxed – a kind of shipping container that you site in your car-park and only plug in the electricity, water (for cooling) and internet. This aligns well with Oracle’s vertical integration (through purchase of Sun) to provide a similar product which does everything in one rack.  Both are compelling if they can really remove the maintenance costs of data-centres (which are currently high) but allow corporates to keep “server hugging” rather than moving to outside cloud providers. Is this cloud? The debate continues to rage?

Secondly he talked about cloud access devices and the consumer  – arguing that these will remain smart and vital. This was a nod towards the XBox and Windows Mobile 7 and a refusal to mention Apple or Google.

To discount Windows as has-been on mobile or tablet is though to ignore the legacy Windows Mobile has in the corporate marketplace – tablets on shop-floors, delivery drivers, production lines are mostly Windows based devices. Sure Apple has stolen a lead – but Microsoft might be able to produce something which is closer to the corporate requirement (a big “might” here). This is a very competitive space (RIM/Apple/Google etc) so we will have to see when the new phone is launched in a couple of weeks.

More significant though was his pointer towards the XBox and Kinect. This is an innovative device which rids the games console of the controller and allows face and voice recognition and 3D motion capture. Demonstrated through games (unsurprisingly) it shows users jumping up and down or waving hands in the living room to control a car or boat – without holding any controller in their hands.

What is interesting for the cloud however is that XBox is currently the only networked device which is linked to a cloud-provider and which sits in the living room connected to a TV. Its competitors – Playstation isn’t very Cloud-enabled and Sony don’t seem to exploit its networking. Further it is generally sited in teenage  bedrooms – next to the laptop. Wii is in the living room for the whole family but is  just not powerful enough or networked enough to be a cloud access device.

This is therefore a potential key market for Microsoft’s Cloud Services going into the home -and accessed by XBox Kinetic. Expect a range of consumer cloud services marketed through this device soon aiming to squeeze Google out of the consumer space! I imagine we will soon be able to read HotMail by waving towards our tv screen.

For more on the talk see the following blog:

Steve Ballmer hits London | Tech Blog | FT.com.

A Cloudy Future for Microsoft?

Friends at www.horsesforsources.com (an influential Outsourcing Blog) provide a useful analysis of Microsoft’s position in the Cloud Market. The comments are perhaps more interesting than the piece…

Click here for their article – A Cloudy Future for Microsoft?.

Lock-ins, SLAs and the Cloud

One of the significant concerns in entering the cloud is the potential for lock-in with a cloud provider (though clearly you otherwise remain locked-in with your own IT department as the sole  provider).

The cost of moving from one provider to another is a significant obstacle to cloud penetration – if you could change provider easily and painlessly you might be more inclided to take the risk. Various services have emerged to try to attack this problem – CloudSwitch being one which created a considerable buzz at the Structure 2010 conference.   Their service aims to provide  a software means to transfer enterprise applications from a company’s data centre into the cloud (and between cloud providers). Whether it can live up to expectations we have yet to know, but CloudSwitch is attempting to provide a degree of portability much desired by clients – and probably much feared by Cloud Service providers whose business would reduce to utility suppliers if they are successful.

But this links into another interesting conversation I was having with a media executive last week. They mentioned that since cloud virtual machines were so cheap they often (effectively)  host services across a number of suppliers to provide their own redundancy and thus ignore the SLA. If one service goes down they can switch quickly (using load balancers etc) to another utility supplier. Clearly this only works for commodity IaaS and for relatively simple content distribution (rather than transaction processing) but it is a compelling model… why worry about choosing one cloud provider and being locked-in or risking poor SLA  – choose them all.